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COVID-19... WHY TALK OF A 'SECOND WAVE', WHEN THE 'FIRST WAVE' HASN'T CONCLUDED YET?

27 July 2020

The rise in cases across Europe has prompted some people, including Boris Johnson, to talk about a "second wave" of COVID-19.

But there is no agreed definition of a second wave - so we cannot say with any certainty that we are experiencing one.

Stephen Evans, professor of pharmacoepidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said: "As far as I know, there are no agreed definitions about 'second waves' or 'spikes', and if there were I suspect it would not be easy to distinguish them until several weeks have elapsed.

So are we still in the first wave? Yes, that is certainly the widely held

view.

What we are seeing here in the UK in places like LeicesterOldham and Blackburn with Darwen - and in Europe - are localised flare-ups that could have been predicted with the easing of lockdown.

Professor James Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, said: "We all need to be clear what we mean when we discuss 'second wave'.

"The UK has never been free from infection, we have had hundreds of cases per day every day since March. However, the number of cases measured today are not comparable to those detected in March.

"In March, we had far too little testing, as a result, the numbers in March massively underestimated the number of infections.

"Although the current testing regime does not catch every positive case, we do have much better sight of the virus.

"The increase in cases was to be expected, as the lockdown eases, the opportunity for the virus to spread will increase."

This article © Sky News.

Link to the Pharmaceutical story